UK Demographics Population data for every community

National demographic outlook

Projections for England and Wales from Census 2021 to 2061. Anchored to two national time series that do not share the same footprint: 24 years of UK-wide National Insurance number (NINo) registrations from overseas, and 17 years of England and Wales births by mother's country of birth. Every section heading below carries the geography its source actually covers.

Updated 14 Aug 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DWP NINo, ONS births by parents' COB
318 Local authorities modelled
86 WBI under 50% by 2051
99 WBI under 50% by 2061, of 255 projected
5 Muslim majority by 2051

Births to non-UK-born mothers, 2025 share

  • UK-born mother 65.4% was 75.9% in 2008
  • Non-UK-born 34.6% was 24.1% in 2008

NINo registrations from overseas: 24-year arc United Kingdom

Adult arrivals from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, all four UK countries, calendar years 2002-2025. 14.94M adults over the 24-year period.

Peak 2023: 1.07M 2025: 570k 2002 2025 1.07M 0

Source: DWP Stat-Xplore, NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK. The series covers 296 English, 22 Welsh, 32 Scottish and all 11 Northern Ireland local authority districts, plus registrations recorded as unknown or abroad. Counts are first-time registrations and so are a flow, not a stock. The 2020 trough reflects the pandemic-era visa freeze; the 2021 to 2022 surge is overwhelmingly post-Brexit non-EU work and student route arrivals.

Births to non-UK-born mothers, 2008 to 2025 England and Wales

24.1% of England + Wales births in 2008 were to mothers born outside the UK. That share is 34.6% in 2025.

24.1% 34.6% 2008 2025 35% 0%

Source: Office for National Statistics, Births in England and Wales: 2025, dataset "Parents' country of birth", 2025 edition, released 27 May 2026. Table 1: Live births by country of birth of mother, 2008 to 2025. England and Wales figure only; local authority figures for 2025 come from Table 6a of the same edition.

Fastest WBI decline: 2021 → 2041 England and Wales

#Area20212041Change
1 Havering 66.5% 37.6% -28.9pp 2 Bolton 68.8% 41.3% -27.5pp 3 Pendle 66.1% 40.6% -25.5pp 4 Thurrock 66.2% 40.9% -25.3pp 5 Sandwell 52.1% 27.5% -24.6pp 6 Bexley 64.5% 40.2% -24.2pp 7 Oldham 65.2% 42.0% -23.2pp 8 Manchester 48.7% 25.4% -23.2pp 9 Broxbourne 68.6% 45.6% -22.9pp 10 Sutton 57.3% 34.6% -22.7pp 11 Dartford 67.3% 44.7% -22.5pp 12 Blackburn with Darwen 56.9% 34.6% -22.3pp 13 Watford 45.8% 23.6% -22.1pp 14 Hertsmere 63.1% 41.2% -21.9pp 15 Nottingham 57.4% 35.7% -21.7pp 16 Walsall 67.4% 45.9% -21.5pp 17 Oadby and Wigston 59.7% 38.2% -21.5pp 18 Hillingdon 37.1% 15.6% -21.4pp 19 Wolverhampton 54.7% 33.5% -21.2pp 20 Barking and Dagenham 30.9% 9.8% -21.0pp