National demographic outlook
England-wide projections from Census 2021 to 2061. Anchored to two national time series: 24 years of National Insurance number (NINo) registrations from overseas, and 17 years of births by mother's country of birth.
Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DWP NINo, ONS births by parents' COBBirths to non-UK-born mothers, 2024 share
- UK-born mother 66.1% was 75.9% in 2008
- Non-UK-born 33.9% was 24.1% in 2008
NINo registrations from overseas: 24-year arc
Adult arrivals from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, England + Wales + Scotland, calendar years 2002–2025. 14.94M adults over the 24-year period.
Source: DWP Stat-Xplore, National Insurance number registrations from overseas. Counts are first-time registrations and so are a flow, not a stock. The 2020 trough reflects the pandemic-era visa freeze; the 2021 to 2022 surge is overwhelmingly post-Brexit non-EU work and student route arrivals.
Births to non-UK-born mothers, 2008 to 2024
24.1% of England + Wales births in 2008 were to mothers born outside the UK. That share is 33.9% in 2024.
Source: ONS Births by parents' country of birth, Table 1, England and Wales 2024 release. National figure only; place-page level uses Table 6a (per-LA 2024).
Fastest WBI decline: 2021 → 2041
#Area20212041Change
1 Havering 66.5% 23.3% -43.2pp 2 Thurrock 66.2% 31.6% -34.6pp 3 Dartford 67.3% 33.3% -33.9pp 4 Salford 74.0% 41.0% -32.9pp 5 Bolton 68.8% 36.1% -32.7pp 6 Bexley 64.5% 32.4% -32.1pp 7 Swindon 74.2% 43.0% -31.2pp 8 Broxbourne 68.6% 37.3% -31.2pp 9 Sutton 57.3% 26.3% -31.0pp 10 Walsall 67.4% 38.0% -29.4pp 11 Sandwell 52.1% 22.7% -29.4pp 12 Hertsmere 63.1% 35.0% -28.1pp 13 Stoke-on-Trent 78.5% 50.5% -28.1pp 14 Oldham 65.2% 37.5% -27.8pp 15 Coventry 55.3% 27.7% -27.6pp 16 Milton Keynes 62.2% 35.0% -27.2pp 17 Peterborough 59.5% 32.5% -27.0pp 18 Bromley 66.5% 39.8% -26.7pp 19 Liverpool 77.3% 50.8% -26.5pp 20 Watford 45.8% 20.1% -25.7pp