National demographic outlook
England-wide projections from Census 2021 to 2061. Hamilton-Perry CCR model with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP320Local authorities modelled
78WBI under 50% by 2051
103WBI under 50% by 2061
5Muslim majority by 2051
Fastest WBI decline: 2021 → 2041
#Area20212041Change
1 Havering 66.5% 23.3% -43.2pp 2 Thurrock 66.2% 31.6% -34.6pp 3 Dartford 67.3% 33.3% -33.9pp 4 Salford 74.0% 41.0% -32.9pp 5 Bolton 68.8% 36.1% -32.7pp 6 Bexley 64.5% 32.4% -32.1pp 7 Swindon 74.2% 43.0% -31.2pp 8 Broxbourne 68.6% 37.3% -31.2pp 9 Sutton 57.3% 26.3% -31.0pp 10 Walsall 67.4% 38.0% -29.4pp 11 Sandwell 52.1% 22.7% -29.4pp 12 Hertsmere 63.1% 35.0% -28.1pp 13 Stoke-on-Trent 78.5% 50.5% -28.1pp 14 Oldham 65.2% 37.5% -27.8pp 15 Coventry 55.3% 27.7% -27.6pp 16 Milton Keynes 62.2% 35.0% -27.2pp 17 Peterborough 59.5% 32.5% -27.0pp 18 Bromley 66.5% 39.8% -26.7pp 19 Liverpool 77.3% 50.8% -26.5pp 20 Watford 45.8% 20.1% -25.7pp