Oldham

North West · England
-45.1pp WBI 65.2% → 20.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
242,087 Population (2021 Census)
65.2% White British (2021)
37.5% White British (2041 projected)
20.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 65.2%
white other 2.9%
asian 24.6%
black 3.4%
mixed 2.5%
other 1.4%

Projected 2051

white british 20.2%
white other 5.9%
asian 23.9%
black 45.3%
mixed 3.0%
other 1.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-10.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.4pp Structural effect
-4.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.55 · Dissimilarity: 16.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 35.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 83.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 16.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 48.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.3%
notEnglishPct 21.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

69/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 19 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum16/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate40.9%
Avg home ownership43.1%
Avg social rent15.6%
Degree or above17.7%
No qualifications17.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)43.1%
Social rent (2021)15.6%
Private rent (2021)13.4%
Ownership (2041)27.3%
Social rent (2041)11%
Social rent change-4.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 45,756 pupils.

WBI pupils48.1%
Minority pupils51.9%
EAL growth (projected)+17.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)17.1pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.3%
notEnglishPct 21.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+27.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census