Stoke-on-Trent

West Midlands · England
-45.9pp WBI 78.5% → 32.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
258,369 Population (2021 Census)
78.5% White British (2021)
50.5% White British (2041 projected)
32.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 78.5%
white other 5.0%
asian 9.9%
black 2.7%
mixed 2.3%
other 1.7%

Projected 2051

white british 32.6%
white other 25.3%
asian 14.2%
black 9.1%
mixed 3.0%
other 15.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.5pp Structural effect
-1.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.46 · Dissimilarity: 5.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 18.2% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 86.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 13.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 41.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.2%
notEnglishPct 17.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

73/100 High Pressure Rank 11 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School19/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate51.1%
Avg home ownership49.2%
Avg social rent19.6%
Degree or above19.2%
No qualifications22.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)49.2%
Social rent (2021)19.6%
Private rent (2021)18.6%
Ownership (2041)38.1%
Social rent (2041)18.1%
Social rent change-1.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 41,299 pupils.

WBI pupils59.2%
Minority pupils40.8%
EAL growth (projected)+19.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)19.3pp

Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.2%
notEnglishPct 17.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+28.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census