Peterborough

East of England · England
-40.4pp WBI 59.5% → 19.1% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
215,670 Population (2021 Census)
59.5% White British (2021)
32.5% White British (2041 projected)
19.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 59.5%
white other 15.9%
asian 14.3%
black 4.1%
mixed 3.5%
other 2.8%

Projected 2051

white british 19.1%
white other 18.6%
asian 12.5%
black 13.7%
mixed 5.2%
other 31.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-11.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.7pp Structural effect
-5.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.68 · Dissimilarity: 16.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 19.8% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 71.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 28.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 64.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 80.0%
notEnglishPct 39.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

67/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 24 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.7%
Avg home ownership44.7%
Avg social rent15.3%
Degree or above21.4%
No qualifications18.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)44.7%
Social rent (2021)15.3%
Private rent (2021)21.7%
Ownership (2041)34.7%
Social rent (2041)14.5%
Social rent change-0.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 40,028 pupils.

WBI pupils42.5%
Minority pupils57.5%
EAL growth (projected)+17.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)17.0pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 80.0%
notEnglishPct 39.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+27pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census