Sutton

London · England
-44.4pp WBI 57.3% → 12.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
209,636 Population (2021 Census)
57.3% White British (2021)
26.3% White British (2041 projected)
12.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 57.3%
white other 11.0%
asian 17.5%
black 6.0%
mixed 4.8%
other 3.4%

Projected 2051

white british 12.8%
white other 13.5%
asian 28.3%
black 4.7%
mixed 4.9%
other 35.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-13.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.7pp Structural effect
-8.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.72 · Dissimilarity: 17.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 21.7% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 72.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 27.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 64.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.7%
notEnglishPct 28.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

59/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 51 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum1/20
School20/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate51.1%
Avg home ownership49.3%
Avg social rent10.8%
Degree or above30.7%
No qualifications11.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)49.3%
Social rent (2021)10.8%
Private rent (2021)16.4%
Ownership (2041)39.7%
Social rent (2041)8.7%
Social rent change-2.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 40,479 pupils.

WBI pupils36.2%
Minority pupils63.8%
EAL growth (projected)+21.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)21.0pp

Schools are 21pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.7%
notEnglishPct 28.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+31pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census