Releases

Model updates, data refreshes, and new features.

Site audit and corrections

Reconciled the NEWETHPOP MAE figures across findings and methodology. National headline figures (White British share 2011 / 2021 / 2051 / 2061) are now computed live from the projection data rather than hard-coded. Added null-safety to per-place stat blocks so missing values render "n/a" rather than "undefined%". Constituency pages now carry a derived demographic snapshot (White British share, foreign-born share), weighted by postcode share and 2021 population. Removed AI-style writing tells (em-dashes, hype words, shouty caps). Expanded modelling acronyms (WBI, CCR, CWR, TFR, SNPP, IPF, MAE, NEWETHPOP, NINo, EAL, DC2101EW, RM021, TS021 / 22 / 27 / 29) in the glossary. Northern Ireland party colours added to the constituency template. Hardcoded "of 320" rank labels now derive from the dataset. Sources page expanded to list DWP Stat-Xplore, NOMIS and ONS births data.

Per-place MiniMap (Phase 3)

Place and constituency pages now show a thumbnail map highlighting the focal area against neighbouring boundaries. Local authority maps use the indigo brand colour for the focal; constituency maps use the 2024 General Election winner's party colour.

Coverage parity (P2)

Added 631 Westminster constituency pages with 2024 General Election results, sitting MPs and Personal Independence Payment claimant counts. Constituency-to-local-authority cross-links use postcode-share weights from the ONS pcon-lookup. Three new findings: 24-year NINo arrivals arc, working-and-not-working by passport group (Census 2021 RM021), and 2024 births by mother's country of birth.

Model v7.0

Census 2011 DC2101EW (18 groups, observed) replaces the previous proportional-splitting Census 2011 base, so per-area Hamilton-Perry CCRs now derive from direct Census observations at both ends of the calibration window. DfE School Census 2024/25 independent calibration applied to ages 0-5 (20% damped). Per-area MAE published on the methodology page. Backcast MAE on the apples-to-apples 269-area comparison against NEWETHPOP: 1.71pp (NEWETHPOP 2.58pp on the same areas). The methodology page documents the circularity caveat: cohort change ratios in the backcast are derived from the same endpoints being validated, and the genuine non-circular measure is the national-CCR baseline at 2.32pp.

UK Demographics launch

Initial release: 320 local authority demographic profiles with ethnic projections to 2061. Hamilton-Perry v6.0 model, 20 ethnic groups, Census-direct base, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations with sigma 0.02 generating 80% and 95% confidence intervals.