Bexley

London · England
-47.5pp WBI 64.4% → 16.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
246,475 Population (2021 Census)
64.5% White British (2021)
32.4% White British (2041 projected)
16.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 64.5%
white other 7.4%
asian 9.9%
black 12.2%
mixed 3.5%
other 2.5%

Projected 2051

white british 16.9%
white other 12.4%
asian 12.1%
black 21.9%
mixed 5.4%
other 31.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-12.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.2pp Structural effect
-6.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.65 · Dissimilarity: 10.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 10.2% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 79.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 21.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 55.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.5%
notEnglishPct 19.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

58/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 59 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum2/20
School19/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate50.2%
Avg home ownership53.8%
Avg social rent11.5%
Degree or above24.9%
No qualifications14%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)53.8%
Social rent (2021)11.5%
Private rent (2021)12.5%
Ownership (2041)43.5%
Social rent (2041)9.2%
Social rent change-2.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 42,300 pupils.

WBI pupils45.8%
Minority pupils54.2%
EAL growth (projected)+18.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)18.7pp

Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.5%
notEnglishPct 19.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+32.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census