Dartford

South East · England
-50.0pp WBI 67.3% → 17.3% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
116,754 Population (2021 Census)
67.3% White British (2021)
33.3% White British (2041 projected)
17.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 67.3%
white other 7.2%
asian 9.9%
black 10.5%
mixed 3.1%
other 2.0%

Projected 2051

white british 17.3%
white other 9.3%
asian 10.2%
black 58.0%
mixed 3.0%
other 2.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-15.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.2pp Structural effect
-8.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.62 · Dissimilarity: 7.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 17.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 80.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 19.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 53.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.6%
notEnglishPct 18.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

37/100 Low Pressure Rank 166 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.5%
Avg home ownership53.6%
Avg social rent10.9%
Degree or above26.1%
No qualifications12.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)53.6%
Social rent (2021)10.9%
Private rent (2021)15.1%
Ownership (2041)32%
Social rent (2041)6.4%
Social rent change-4.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.6%
notEnglishPct 18.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+33.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census