Census 2021 projected to 2061 · model v8.0
What will your area look like in 2051?
Put in a postcode and get the whole picture for that community: the ethnic projection to 2061, who is arriving and why, school and housing pressure, care and health demand, and the constituency it sits in. Twenty three datasets, one page, every figure sourced.
- 318 local authorities
- 631 constituencies
- 23 datasets per area
- Free to reuse with attribution
Latest research
FINDING +234% The methodology change that erased 180,000 British emigrants a year Read more → FINDING 108,099 108,099 to 11: How Britain ended care-worker migration in three years Read more → ANALYSIS 7.32M Brexit was supposed to end EU migration. The EU Settlement Scheme has confirmed 7.3 million. Read more →
All 20 findings → 74.4% → 55.1% White British share, 2021 → 2051 Population-weighted across 318 local authorities. Observed Census 2021 vs Hamilton-Perry projection. Illustrative 2061: 39.1% (269 of 318 areas have a 2061 projection). Full trajectory in the model below.
60 areas below 50% White British by 2051 88 by 2061. Click any area for its 2011 to 2061 trajectory.
110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051 5 projected Muslim majority by 2051.
Census 2011 and 2021 observed. 2051 and 2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model was fitted on Census 2001 to 2011 and scored against Census 2021: mean absolute error 1.56 percentage points per decade, bias +0.05 points across 285 areas. Areas where the model diverged are withheld. Full methodology →
Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified 60 areas WBI under 50% by 2051 88 areas WBI under 50% by 2061 5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051 110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051
National ethnic composition trajectory
The ONS does not project ethnic composition at local authority level. This model does. 318 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.
The years these areas cross 50%
Areas that are comfortably majority White British today, and the year the projection takes each of them below half. Interpolated between projection decades, so the years are approximate. Areas already close to the line are left out: their crossing year is carried by where they started rather than by the trend, and it sits inside the model's own error. 33 areas are already below a majority.
Area Region Today 2021 to 2041 Crosses 50%
Milton Keynes South East 62.2% 2033 Havering London 66.5% 2033 Bexley London 64.5% 2033 Hertsmere East of England 63.1% 2033 Oldham North West 65.2% 2034 Pendle North West 66.1% 2034 Thurrock East of England 66.2% 2034 Bolton North West 68.8% 2035 The marker sits on a 2021 to 2041 axis. Source: Census 2021 (ONS) projected with Hamilton-Perry v8.0, mean absolute error 1.56pp per decade.
Explore the data See the full profile → Browse all 318 areas →
What does your area look like in 2051?
318 local authority profiles. Demographic projections to 2061, religion, nativity, shift-share analysis, school data, economic profiles.
Population
White British 2021
White British 2051
Most diverse regions
Regional variation in ethnic composition. Sorted by lowest population-weighted White British share.
London 36.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 33 areas
West Midlands 71.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 30 areas
East of England 78.5% WBI (pop-weighted) · 45 areas
South East 78.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 64 areas
East Midlands 79.6% WBI (pop-weighted) · 35 areas
Yorkshire and The Humber 80.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 15 areas
Every projection sourced. Every figure checked.
Census 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry methodology. Click any figure to trace it back to the ONS.