Census 2021 to 2061, Hamilton-Perry projections

320 local authorities. Every community mapped.

Ethnic composition projections for every English local authority. 20 ethnic groups. Census-direct base. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. From 2021 observed data to 2061 projections.

Hamilton-Perry CCR model · backcast MAE 1.71pp (see methodology for caveat) · Full methodology →

Latest research

FINDING +234% The methodology change that erased 180,000 British emigrants a year Read more → FINDING 108,099 108,099 to 11: How Britain ended care-worker migration in three years Read more → ANALYSIS 7.32M Brexit was supposed to end EU migration. The EU Settlement Scheme has confirmed 7.3 million. Read more →

All 20 findings →

74.5% → 52.1% White British share, 2021 → 2051 Population-weighted across 320 local authorities. Observed Census 2021 vs Hamilton-Perry projection. Illustrative 2061: 35.3% (271 of 320 areas have a 2061 projection). Full trajectory in the model below.

78 areas below 50% White British by 2051 103 by 2061. Click any area for its 2011 to 2061 trajectory.

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051 5 projected Muslim majority by 2051.

Census 2011 and 2021 observed. 2051 and 2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Backcast MAE 1.71pp on the same area set (see methodology for the circularity caveat). Full methodology →

Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified

National ethnic composition trajectory

The ONS does not project ethnic composition at local authority level. This model does. 320 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.

White British share (population-weighted, 320 local authorities)

2011 Census 80.1%

2021 Census 74.5%

2051 projected 52.1%

2061 illustrative (271 of 320) 35.3%

Census figures observed. 2051 and 2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model. 2061 is illustrative only and covers 271 of 320 areas. Full methodology

78 areas WBI under 50% by 2051

103 areas WBI under 50% by 2061

5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051

110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051

Largest projected White British decline, 2021 to 2041

Havering -43.2pp Thurrock -34.6pp Dartford -33.9pp Salford -32.9pp Bolton -32.7pp Bexley -32.1pp Swindon -31.2pp Broxbourne -31.2pp Sutton -31.0pp Walsall -29.4pp

Bar length is the size of the projected change. 2021 share to projected 2041 share, by Hamilton-Perry CCR.

See the research National demographic outlook Methodology

Explore the data

What does your area look like in 2051?

320 local authority profiles. Demographic projections to 2061, religion, nativity, shift-share analysis, school data, economic profiles.

Browse all 320 areas →

Most diverse regions

Regional variation in ethnic composition. Sorted by lowest population-weighted White British share.

London 36.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 33 areas

West Midlands 71.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 30 areas

East of England 78.5% WBI (pop-weighted) · 45 areas

South East 78.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 64 areas

East Midlands 79.6% WBI (pop-weighted) · 35 areas

Yorkshire and The Humber 80.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 15 areas

Sister sites

One model, three views: demographics, elections, fiscal cost

UK Demographics tracks the population change. Two sister sites read the same government data through different lenses. Follow all three for the full picture.

ukelections.co.uk

Forecast every council and constituency

Hamilton-Perry-anchored election model trained on demographic composition. Per-ward and per-constituency outlook for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

156 councils with forecasts
650 Westminster constituencies
82.7% backtest accuracy

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asylumstats.co.uk

Where the money goes

The fiscal bill for asylum accommodation. Home Office contracts, per-taxpayer cost, true-cost breakdown across hotels, dispersed accommodation, processing and local authority grants.

£5.77M per day, accommodation
£155+ per taxpayer per year
£15.3B NAO 10-year forecast

Open asylumstats.co.uk →

Every projection sourced. Every figure checked.

Census 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry methodology. Click any figure to trace it back to the ONS.

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