Census 2021 to 2061 — Hamilton-Perry projections
320 local authorities. Every community mapped.
The most detailed publicly available ethnic composition projections for England.
20 ethnic groups. Census-direct methodology. 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
From 2021 observed data to 2061 projections.
Hamilton-Perry CCR model · MAE 1.72pp · Full methodology →
73.3% → 48.7% White British share, 2021 → 2051 Population-weighted across 320 local authorities. Observed Census 2021 → Hamilton-Perry projection. Illustrative 2061: 40.2%. Full trajectory in the model below.
78 areas below 50% WB by 2051 103 by 2061. Click any area for its 2011–2061 trajectory.
110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051 5 projected Muslim majority by 2051.
Census 2011 and 2021 observed. 2051 and 2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, MAE 1.72pp against 2021 observed. Full methodology →
Hamilton-Perry model, Census-verified National ethnic composition trajectory
The ONS does not project ethnic composition at local authority level. This model does.
320 local authorities. Census 2011 and 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry CCR methodology.
1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every ratio traced to Census observations.
White British share (population-weighted, 320 local authorities) Census figures observed. 2051/2061 projected by Hamilton-Perry CCR model. 2061 is illustrative only. Full methodology 78 areas WBI under 50% by 2051
103 areas WBI under 50% by 2061
5 areas projected Muslim majority by 2051
110 areas projected foreign-born majority by 2051
Fastest transformation: White British % change 2021 → 2041
Explore the data What does YOUR area look like in 2051?
320 local authority profiles. Demographic projections to 2061, religion, nativity, shift-share analysis, school data, economic profiles. All sourced. All free.
Browse all 320 areas → Most diverse regions
Regional variation in ethnic composition. Sorted by lowest population-weighted White British share.
London 36.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 33 areas
West Midlands 71.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 30 areas
East of England 78.5% WBI (pop-weighted) · 45 areas
South East 78.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 64 areas
East Midlands 79.6% WBI (pop-weighted) · 35 areas
Yorkshire and The Humber 80.8% WBI (pop-weighted) · 15 areas
Sister site · asylumstats.co.uk
Where YOUR money goes — the asylum accommodation bill
We track the demographic transformation here.
Over on asylumstats.co.uk we track the fiscal bill.
Same government data. Two lenses. Follow both.
£5.77M per day Home Office asylum accommodation, 2024–25 average
£155+ per taxpayer per year Minimum — hotels + processing + local auth + border + NHS
£15.3B over 10 years NAO forecast, contract rose from £4.5B to £15.3B
Annual spend allocation (approx.) Hotels 44%
Dispersed accom. 28%
Processing & admin 16%
Local auth. grants 8%
Other 4%
30,912 in hotels ·
98,112 awaiting a decision ·
Q4 2025
Every projection sourced. Every figure checked.
Census 2021 observed data. Hamilton-Perry methodology. Click any figure and trace it back to the ONS. Then decide for yourself.