Milton Keynes

South East · England
-40.5pp WBI 62.2% → 21.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
287,060 Population (2021 Census)
62.2% White British (2021)
35.0% White British (2041 projected)
21.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 62.2%
white other 9.6%
asian 12.4%
black 9.7%
mixed 4.1%
other 2.0%

Projected 2051

white british 21.7%
white other 17.9%
asian 20.5%
black 17.4%
mixed 5.4%
other 17.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-11.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.5pp Structural effect
-5.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.68 · Dissimilarity: 12.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 17.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 74.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 25.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 61.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.4%
notEnglishPct 25.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

63/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 30 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum6/20
School18/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.9%
Avg home ownership46.5%
Avg social rent14%
Degree or above28.1%
No qualifications12.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)46.5%
Social rent (2021)14%
Private rent (2021)17.4%
Ownership (2041)36.3%
Social rent (2041)10.8%
Social rent change-3.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 51,189 pupils.

WBI pupils43.8%
Minority pupils56.2%
EAL growth (projected)+18.4pp
WBI gap (school vs population)18.4pp

Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.4%
notEnglishPct 25.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+27.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census