Swindon

South West · England
-47.9pp WBI 74.2% → 26.3% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
233,411 Population (2021 Census)
74.2% White British (2021)
43.0% White British (2041 projected)
26.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 74.2%
white other 7.3%
asian 11.6%
black 2.6%
mixed 2.8%
other 1.5%

Projected 2051

white british 26.3%
white other 10.5%
asian 46.7%
black 7.6%
mixed 3.7%
other 5.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-10.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-3.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.51 · Dissimilarity: 3.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 79.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 20.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 54.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.0%
notEnglishPct 20.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

62/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 34 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum12/20
School13/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.9%
Avg home ownership55.1%
Avg social rent13.3%
Degree or above24%
No qualifications14.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)55.1%
Social rent (2021)13.3%
Private rent (2021)17.3%
Ownership (2041)37.7%
Social rent (2041)9.1%
Social rent change-4.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 36,954 pupils.

WBI pupils61.0%
Minority pupils39.0%
EAL growth (projected)+13.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)13.2pp

Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.0%
notEnglishPct 20.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+31.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census