Swindon
South West · England · E06000030This profile covers population at the 2021 Census, ethnicity, religion and country of birth with projections to 2051, arrivals since 2002, housing, schools and services, drawn from ONS, DWP, DfE and other official statistics. Modelled projections are labelled as such. Read the methodology and limitations or inspect the official sources.
Swindon had 233,411 residents at the 2021 Census, up 11.6% from 209,156 in 2011. The three largest ethnic groups were White British (74.2%), Asian (11.6%) and White Other (7.3%). This site's Hamilton-Perry model (version 8.0, projected from the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, held within the ONS 2022-based subnational population projections) puts the three largest groups in 2051 at White British (41.9%), Asian (30.5%) and White Other (10.1%).
Looking at a street rather than the whole area? Look up your postcode for the local authority and constituency it sits in.
The White British majority here is projected to end around 2044.
Projected Falls below half around 2044
173,231 of Swindon’s 233,411 residents identified as White British at the 2021 Census. The projection takes that share from 74.2% to 41.9% by 2051. Interpolated between projection decades, so the year is approximate.
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points on that one-decade forecast and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased. The shaded band is the 80% interval for White British share.
This area is shown to 2051 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast. Those years are withheld here until the model is reconciled. See the limitations.
Ethnic composition, Swindon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% interval
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian | Black | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 84.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 2021 | 74.2% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| 2031 modelled | 64.8% | 8.5% | 16.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| 2041 modelled | 53.9% | 9.6% | 23.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| 2051 modelled | 41.9% | 10.1% | 30.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% |
Ethnic composition: Swindon
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±17.5pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 41.9% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 59.4% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 17.5pp on White British share in Swindon by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Swindon ranges from 50.9% to 60.9% by 2051: a 10pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 54.9% by 2051
Diversity index
diverse Shannon entropy: 0.51 · Dissimilarity: 2.4
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion | Muslim | Hindu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 49.4% | 42.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 2031 modelled | 36.8% | 51.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% |
| 2041 modelled | 25.5% | 57.9% | 5.7% | 8.4% |
| 2051 modelled | 16.5% | 60.3% | 7.3% | 13.5% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 2031 modelled | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 2041 modelled | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 2051 modelled | 45.7% | 54.3% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English90.0%
Main language not English10.0%
Cannot speak English well1.5%
Cannot speak English at all0.3%
Total population 3+225,532
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Data flag 10% of residents aged 3 and over have a main language other than English (Census 2021, TS029), below the 15% line this site uses to flag language demand. A threshold on one Census variable, not a service-planning assessment. This site publishes no projection of language: it models ethnic group, and ethnic composition change is not a measure of language change.
Demographic change and service exposure
A composite score from five capped components. It measures exposure to demographic change, not service cost or capacity, and it has not been validated against observed service demand. See how the score is built.
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum12/20
School13/20
Language10/20
Housing17/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Swindon ranks at the 72nd percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)1,433
Year-on-year -19.3%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
India 365 25.5%
Nepal 168 11.7%
Nigeria 134 9.4%
Pakistan 63 4.4%
Brazil 60 4.2%
Afghanistan 51 3.6%
Ukraine 47 3.3%
Ghana 43 3.0%
Bangladesh 39 2.7%
Other / unknown 39 2.7%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database), rolling year ending Q4 2025.. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Swindon from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2023 (3,278 registrations). Total over the full period: 48,780 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 1,583 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Swindon in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Swindon UK marker
Sex
Male share is 4.2pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (January 2025 to December 2025). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Swindon, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
India 365 in Swindon (25.5%)
Nepal 168 in Swindon (11.7%)
Nigeria 134 in Swindon (9.4%)
Pakistan 63 in Swindon (4.4%)
Brazil 60 in Swindon (4.2%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026; Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Swindon changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 209,156 in 2011 to 233,410 in 2021 (+11.6%). Non-UK-born residents went from 26,941 (12.9% of population) to 47,656 (20.4%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 182,215 87.1% 185,754 79.6% +3,539
Ireland-born 1,544 0.7% 1,127 0.5% -417
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 3,548 1.7% 4,541 1.9% +993
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 4,245 2% 8,609 3.7% +4,364
Rest of World 17,604 8.4% 33,379 14.3% +15,775
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 91 state-funded schools in Swindon (37,271 pupils, 2025/26), 25.5% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English9,456 (25.5%)
Pupils with first language English27,535 (74.1%)
Free school meals23.4%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2025/26, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
South West labour market
Payrolled employments in the South West region (December 2025). Provides Swindon with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments2,654,300
Non-UK share13.7%
5-year change · Non-EU +128,600
5-year change · EU -14,300
Top industries by non-UK share (South West)
Administrative and support services 23.7%
Health and social work 22.3%
Transportation and storage 18.8%
Accommodation and food service activities 18.7%
Manufacturing 15.9%
Source: HM Revenue and Customs, PAYE Real Time Information, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2025; the five-year change runs from December 2020. Counts are employments not employees, rounded to the nearest 100; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2026, ONS. Swindon ranks at the 48th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k69.2
Violent crime / 1k28.7
Theft / 1k18.0
Drug offences / 1k2.4
Year-on-year +8.2%
Police force: Wiltshire. It could not place 0.7% of the offences it recorded in this period in any area, and those offences are in no area's figure.
ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Police Force Area data tables, year ending March 2026 (released 23 July 2026), Tables C1, C2 and C5, police recorded crime from the Home Office; rates per 1,000 residents on ONS mid-2025 population estimates. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates and policing priority, and city centre rates are inflated by small resident populations. Offences a force could not place in any area are left out of area figures; each area shows its force's unassigned share.
Adult social care
Council spending on adult social care (2024-25) and residential care for people aged 65 and over (2024-25), against each age group's population in the ONS mid-2025 estimates. Spend per adult ranks at the 36th percentile nationally.
Gross spend per adult (18+), 2024-25£591
Aged 65+ in residential care per 10,000 aged 65+, 2024-2593
Department of Health and Social Care, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025, Table 14; Department of Health and Social Care, Adult social care activity report, England: 2024 to 2025, Table 34; Office for National Statistics, Mid-Year Population Estimates, England and Wales, June 2025, for the per-head rates. Adult social care is run by upper tier councils (counties, unitaries, metropolitan districts and London boroughs), so a district shows its county's figures. Spend reflects age structure, deprivation and unpaid care, so differences between councils are not a measure of efficiency. Activity figures are official statistics in development.
Department of Health and Social Care change note on the activity report, 7 October 2026: “Added notice of planned corrections to the 2024 to 2025 activity report, affecting data submitted by some local authorities. Updated figures will be published alongside the 2025 to 2026 activity report.”
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Swindon's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 18.4%
White: English 19.1%
Asian 9.3%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2025/26 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth ranks at the 38th percentile nationally.
Pupils with an EHC plan, % of pupils6.6%
Pupils with an EHC plan2,463
Autism, share of EHC plans33.3%
5-yr growth +55.7%
Autistic spectrum disorder 33.3%
Speech, language and communications needs 22.2%
Social, emotional and mental health 19.2%
Moderate learning difficulty 7.7%
Severe learning difficulty 4.5%
Specific learning difficulty 3.9%
DfE, Special educational needs in England, academic year 2025/26, published 11 June 2026, Explore Education Statistics: pupils in all schools by type of SEN provision, and pupils with an EHC plan by primary type of need. SEND is run by upper-tier councils, so district pages show their county. Figures count pupils on the January school census who have an EHC plan; plans held by children under school age, young people in further education and those not in school are not included. The autism figure is the share of pupils with an EHC plan whose primary need is autism, not a prevalence in the population. Rising numbers may reflect identification, diagnosis and parental awareness as well as need.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Swindon pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate56.9%
Avg home ownership55.1%
Avg social rent13.3%
Degree or above24%
No qualifications14.8%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Swindon are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up31.9%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount32,229
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)277
HMOs per 1,000 population1.19
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2025 (CTB, snapshot 6 October 2025) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Swindon's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 66.9%
White: English: owned 68.8%
Asian: owned 58.4%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)55.1%
Social rent (2021)13.3%
Private rent (2021)17.3%
Ownership (2041)44.5%
Social rent (2041)11%
Social rent change-2.3pp
Data flag The foreign-born share is projected to rise by 33.9pp between 2021 and 2051 (Census 2021 TS004 country of birth, projected by the Hamilton-Perry method), above the 15pp line this site uses to flag housing demand. A threshold on one projected variable, not a housing-need assessment.
School demographics
DfE School Census 2024/25. 36,954 pupils.
White British pupils61.0%
Minority pupils39.0%
EAL growth (projected)+13.2pp
White British gap (school vs population)13.2pp
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Swindon, largest first by the share of each constituency's postcodes that fall in Swindon.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Swindon on Asylum Stats →
Local geography The shared local-authority geography record and its source coverage. Place record on UK Places