Liverpool

North West · England
-43.1pp WBI 77.3% → 34.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
486,088 Population (2021 Census)
77.3% White British (2021)
50.8% White British (2041 projected)
34.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.3%
white other 6.7%
asian 5.7%
black 3.5%
mixed 3.5%
other 3.3%

Projected 2051

white british 34.2%
white other 16.6%
asian 13.7%
black 5.1%
mixed 6.1%
other 24.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-0.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.50 · Dissimilarity: 5.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 11.8% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 85.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 14.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 44.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.4%
notEnglishPct 19.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

67/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 21 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School12/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate50.7%
Avg home ownership42.4%
Avg social rent24.1%
Degree or above28.1%
No qualifications20.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)42.4%
Social rent (2021)24.1%
Private rent (2021)24.2%
Ownership (2041)33.5%
Social rent (2041)22.6%
Social rent change-1.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 76,858 pupils.

WBI pupils65.2%
Minority pupils34.8%
EAL growth (projected)+12.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)12.1pp

Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.4%
notEnglishPct 19.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+26.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census