Hertsmere

East of England · England
-40.8pp WBI 63.1% → 22.3% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
107,827 Population (2021 Census)
63.1% White British (2021)
35.0% White British (2041 projected)
22.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 63.1%
white other 14.0%
asian 10.5%
black 4.8%
mixed 3.7%
other 3.9%

Projected 2051

white british 22.3%
white other 26.8%
asian 15.6%
black 4.3%
mixed 6.3%
other 24.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-12.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.3pp Structural effect
-6.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.67 · Dissimilarity: 11.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 10.5% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 77.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 22.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 57.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.7%
notEnglishPct 20.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

40/100 Low Pressure Rank 148 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.9%
Avg home ownership54.6%
Avg social rent14.5%
Degree or above33.8%
No qualifications13.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)54.6%
Social rent (2021)14.5%
Private rent (2021)15.6%
Ownership (2041)49.7%
Social rent (2041)11.8%
Social rent change-2.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.7%
notEnglishPct 20.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+28.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census