Glossary
Plain English. No jargon. Every term used on this site, defined.
Asylum seeker
A person who has applied for refugee status and is waiting for a decision. They have not been granted permission to stay. They are not allowed to work. The Home Office houses and supports them while their claim is processed.
Refugee
A person whose asylum claim has been granted. They have legal permission to stay in the UK, can work, and can access public services. The terms 'asylum seeker' and 'refugee' are not interchangeable.
Migrant
Anyone who moves from one country to another. This includes students, workers, family members, and asylum seekers. It is not a legal status. Using 'migrant' and 'asylum seeker' interchangeably is inaccurate.
Dispersal accommodation
Housing provided by the Home Office to asylum seekers outside London and the South East. Typically flats or houses in areas with lower housing costs. Managed by private contractors (Serco, Mears, Clearsprings).
Contingency accommodation
Temporary housing used when dispersal accommodation is full. Usually hotels, hostels, or former military barracks. More expensive per person than dispersal housing. Not intended to be long-term.
Initial accommodation
Short-term housing for new asylum seekers while their support application is processed. Typically large hostel-style sites. People are supposed to stay for a few weeks but backlogs mean some stay months.
Subsistence only
Asylum seekers who receive financial support but arrange their own accommodation, usually staying with friends or family. They get a cash allowance but no housing from the Home Office.
Section 95 support
The main form of asylum support, named after Section 95 of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999. Covers accommodation and/or subsistence for destitute asylum seekers while their claim is being considered.
Section 98 support
Emergency support for asylum seekers who appear destitute and need immediate accommodation. Temporary, pending a full Section 95 assessment.
Decision backlog
The number of asylum claims awaiting an initial decision from the Home Office. Each person in the backlog costs the taxpayer roughly £150 per day in accommodation and support while they wait.
Grant rate
The percentage of asylum claims that are approved (granted refugee status or humanitarian protection) at initial decision. Varies enormously by nationality.
Small boats
Irregular Channel crossings in small vessels, typically inflatable dinghies. The dominant route for illegal entry into the UK since 2020. Crossings are coordinated by organised criminal gangs.
Safe and legal routes
Official pathways for refugees to enter the UK without making an irregular journey. Includes the UK Resettlement Scheme, Afghan schemes (ARAP/ACRS), and Homes for Ukraine.
Homes for Ukraine
A visa scheme launched in March 2022 allowing UK residents to sponsor Ukrainian nationals fleeing the war. Sponsors provide accommodation for at least six months. Distinct from the asylum system.
Afghan programme
Two schemes: ARAP (Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy) for interpreters and staff who worked with UK forces, and ACRS (Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme) for vulnerable Afghans. Some remain in bridging hotels years later.
White British Index
The percentage of a local authority's population identifying as White British in the Census. Used in demographic projections to track compositional change over time. Not a value judgement. A statistical measure.
WBI
Short for White British Index. The Census 2021 share of the population identifying as White British. Tracked across time as a proxy for compositional change.
CCR (cohort change ratio)
The ratio of a single-year-of-age cohort in one Census to the matching cohort ten years later. The core building block of the Hamilton-Perry projection: if a population aged 30-39 in 2021 is 95% of the cohort aged 20-29 in 2011, the CCR is 0.95.
CWR (child-woman ratio)
Number of children aged 0-4 per woman aged 15-49 in the Census. Used in the Hamilton-Perry projection to roll the youngest cohort forward without an explicit fertility model.
TFR (total fertility rate)
The average number of live births a woman would have over her lifetime at current age-specific fertility rates. Replacement level in developed countries is around 2.1. UK TFR was 1.44 in 2024.
SNPP
Subnational Population Projections. ONS projection of total population by local authority. Used in this model as an envelope constraint on the projected total.
IPF
Iterative Proportional Fitting. A statistical method for filling a multidimensional table when only marginal totals are known. Avoided here for the Census 2021 base by using the ONS custom dataset directly.
MAE (mean absolute error)
The average size of error between a model's projections and the observed outcome, ignoring direction. Reported in percentage points for ethnic-share projections.
NEWETHPOP
An academic ethnic population projection for UK local authorities published by Rees, Wohland and colleagues at the University of Leeds in 2016. The previous benchmark for subnational ethnic projections. Validated against Census 2021 on this site.
NINo
National Insurance number. The entry-point document for any adult arriving from overseas who wants to work, claim benefits or join the tax system. DWP publishes annual registrations by nationality via Stat-Xplore.
EAL
English as Additional Language. The DfE category for pupils whose first language at home is not English. Used in school-census data to track linguistic diversity in catchments.
RM021
An ONS Census 2021 table covering economic activity by passport group at local authority level. Released by NOMIS as NM_2121_1. Available for 148 English local authorities subject to disclosure control.
TS021
An ONS Census 2021 table covering broad ethnic group at local authority level. The primary reference for high-level ethnic composition.
TS022 / TS027 / TS029
Other ONS Census 2021 tables used on this site: TS022 detailed ethnic group (294 subcategories), TS027 country of birth, TS029 English language proficiency.
DC2101EW
An ONS Census 2011 table covering ethnic group by age and sex. The 18-group ethnic dataset used as the projection's 2011 base. Beers interpolation is used to split five-year age bands into single-year-of-age.
Hamilton-Perry method
A demographic projection technique that uses the ratio of population change between two census periods to project forward. Simpler than cohort-component models. Does not require fertility/mortality/migration estimates.
Pressure index
A composite score combining five domains: asylum dispersal rate, demographic change speed, police recorded crime, SEND demand growth, and adult social care spend. Higher scores indicate areas under more combined pressure.
SEND
Special Educational Needs and Disabilities. Measured by the number of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) issued by a local authority. Demand has grown significantly in areas with rapid population change.
Adult social care (ASC)
Services provided by councils for adults who need help with daily living due to illness, disability, or old age. Includes home care, residential care, and day services. One of the largest areas of council spending.
IMD
Index of Multiple Deprivation. The government's official measure of how deprived an area is, combining income, employment, education, health, crime, housing, and environment. Rank 1 is the most deprived.
Prime provider
The main contractor responsible for asylum accommodation in a region. Three companies hold these contracts: Serco, Mears Group, and Clearsprings Ready Homes. They subcontract to local landlords and hotel operators.
UKVI
UK Visas and Immigration. The Home Office division that processes asylum claims, visa applications, and immigration decisions.
NAO
National Audit Office. The independent body that scrutinises public spending on behalf of Parliament. Their reports on asylum accommodation costs are a primary source for this site.
Home Office
The government department responsible for immigration, asylum, policing, and national security. Makes all decisions on asylum claims and manages the asylum support system through contractors.