Salford

North West · England
-50.3pp WBI 74.0% → 23.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
269,922 Population (2021 Census)
74.0% White British (2021)
41.0% White British (2041 projected)
23.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 74.0%
white other 8.4%
asian 5.5%
black 6.1%
mixed 3.1%
other 2.9%

Projected 2051

white british 23.7%
white other 9.9%
asian 8.0%
black 30.3%
mixed 6.3%
other 21.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-10.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-3.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.54 · Dissimilarity: 4.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 17.3% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 81.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 19.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 52.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 88.6%
notEnglishPct 22.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

60/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 40 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum12/20
School12/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.3%
Avg home ownership41.4%
Avg social rent22.4%
Degree or above29.9%
No qualifications17.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)41.4%
Social rent (2021)22.4%
Private rent (2021)24.5%
Ownership (2041)28.8%
Social rent (2041)18%
Social rent change-4.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 38,185 pupils.

WBI pupils62.1%
Minority pupils37.9%
EAL growth (projected)+11.9pp
WBI gap (school vs population)11.9pp

Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 88.6%
notEnglishPct 22.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+32.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census