Cotswold

South West · England
-4.6pp WBI 92.0% → 87.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
90,830 Population (2021 Census)
92.0% White British (2021)
89.1% White British (2041 projected)
87.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 92.0%
white other 4.4%
asian 1.3%
black 0.4%
mixed 1.6%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 87.4%
white other 7.0%
asian 1.2%
black 0.5%
mixed 3.6%
other 0.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+5.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.21 · Dissimilarity: 17.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 30.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.8%
notEnglishPct 4.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

15/100 Stable Rank 312 of 320
Ethnic change4/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.9%
Avg home ownership65.9%
Avg social rent15.1%
Degree or above39.1%
No qualifications13.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65.9%
Social rent (2021)15.1%
Private rent (2021)17.2%
Ownership (2041)65.4%
Social rent (2041)15.1%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.8%
notEnglishPct 4.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+2.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census