EHCP demand grew fastest in areas with rapid demographic change

Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) numbers have grown by an average of 42% over five years across our 25 tracked local authorities.

The fastest growth is in areas that also carry high asylum dispersal loads:

• Blackpool: +51.2% EHCP growth, 142.8 crimes per 1,000
• Preston: +46.8% growth, 118.4 crimes per 1,000
• North Northamptonshire: +45.1% growth, rapid demographic change

Rising EHCP numbers reflect multiple factors: improved identification practices, changing diagnostic thresholds, increased parental awareness, and genuine prevalence changes. Language barriers in areas with higher non-English-speaking populations may also affect identification timing.

Methodological limitation: This is a descriptive comparison across n=25 areas without formal statistical controls. EHCP demand growth correlates with deprivation, population growth, and LA assessment practices independently of demographic change or asylum dispersal. A proper analysis would need to partial out IMD rank and prior EHCP baseline rates. The sample size (25 LAs) is too small for reliable multivariate analysis.

The question for local authorities is whether SEND funding models keep pace with demand in areas under simultaneous demographic, asylum, and deprivation pressures.