Pupils with an EHC plan rose 65% in five years in England, with no link to demographic change

Correction, 12 October 2026. The figures in this piece came from a 25-authority file typed into the site’s source by hand in April 2026, with no raw file or script behind it, and they could not be traced to DfE’s tables. The file gave EHC plan figures for district councils, which do not run SEND services. The piece said EHC plans grew by an average of 42% over five years, and gave Blackpool +51.2%, Preston +46.8% and North Northamptonshire +45.1%, with Doncaster +45% in the summary. It also gave recorded crime rates of 142.8 per 1,000 for Blackpool and 118.4 for Preston, and described these as areas with high asylum dispersal without giving any figure for it.

On DfE’s figures (Special educational needs in England, academic year 2025/26, published 11 June 2026, pupils with an EHC plan in all schools), pupils with an EHC plan in England rose by 65.4% in five years, from 325,618 in 2020/21 to 538,547 in 2025/26. Blackpool rose by 70.0%, Lancashire, which runs SEND for Preston, by 75.2%, and Doncaster by 59.4%. North Northamptonshire has no 2020/21 figure because it was created in April 2021. Police recorded crime excluding fraud in the year ending March 2026 was 146.5 per 1,000 residents in Blackpool and 97.7 in Preston (ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Police Force Area data tables, year ending March 2026, Table C2, on ONS mid-2025 population estimates). The crime rates have no bearing on SEND and are removed, as is the unsupported asylum description.

The original headline does not hold on the published figures. Across the 123 unitary, metropolitan and London authorities with both figures, five-year growth in pupils with an EHC plan has no relationship with the change in the White British share between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses: the rank correlation is -0.05.

The headline originally read: “EHCP demand grew fastest in areas with rapid demographic change”. It now says what the published figures show.

Update, 14 October 2026. The rank correlation was given as -0.04. That figure counted Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole and Dorset as having no change in the White British share, because the site then held no 2011 figure for councils formed after 2011. Their 2011 figures are now the sums of the districts they replaced (Census 2011 KS201EW), and across the same 123 authorities the rank correlation is -0.05. The conclusion does not change.

Pupils with an EHC plan in England rose by 65.4% in five years, from 325,618 in 2020/21 to 538,547 in 2025/26. In 2025/26 they are 6.0% of pupils.

The areas this piece first named:

• Blackpool: +70.0%, from 843 to 1,433 pupils
• Lancashire, which runs SEND for Preston: +75.2%, from 6,720 to 11,771
• Doncaster: +59.4%, from 1,432 to 2,282
• North Northamptonshire: no five-year figure, because the council was created in April 2021

Growth is fast almost everywhere, and it does not track demographic change. Across the 123 unitary, metropolitan and London authorities with both figures, the rank correlation between five-year growth and the 2011 to 2021 change in the White British share is -0.05, which is no relationship at all.

Rising EHC plan numbers reflect multiple factors: improved identification practices, changing diagnostic thresholds, increased parental awareness, and genuine prevalence changes. Language barriers in areas with higher non-English-speaking populations may also affect identification timing.

What the figures count. Pupils on the January school census who have an EHC plan, in all schools. Plans held by children under school age, young people in further education and those not in school are not included. SEND is run by upper-tier councils, so a district has no figure of its own.

Methodological limitation: This is a descriptive comparison without statistical controls. EHC plan growth correlates with deprivation, population growth and council assessment practice, independently of demographic change.

The question for local authorities is whether SEND funding models keep pace with demand that has grown by two thirds in five years.