Vale of White Horse

South East · England
-17.0pp WBI 83.2% → 66.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
138,913 Population (2021 Census)
83.2% White British (2021)
72.9% White British (2041 projected)
66.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 83.2%
white other 7.6%
asian 4.0%
black 1.7%
mixed 2.5%
other 1.1%

Projected 2051

white british 66.2%
white other 18.2%
asian 5.9%
black 2.4%
mixed 6.3%
other 1.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.8pp Structural effect
+0.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.38 · Dissimilarity: 9.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 85.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 14.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 43.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.4%
notEnglishPct 11.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

33/100 Low Pressure Rank 189 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate61.6%
Avg home ownership65.7%
Avg social rent13.5%
Degree or above41.6%
No qualifications11.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65.7%
Social rent (2021)13.5%
Private rent (2021)15.2%
Ownership (2041)62.9%
Social rent (2041)12.8%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.4%
notEnglishPct 11.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census