Wiltshire

South West · England
-17.3pp WBI 90.1% → 72.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
510,333 Population (2021 Census)
90.1% White British (2021)
80.5% White British (2041 projected)
72.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.1%
white other 4.3%
asian 2.1%
black 1.1%
mixed 1.7%
other 0.7%

Projected 2051

white british 72.8%
white other 7.7%
asian 7.4%
black 3.5%
mixed 4.7%
other 3.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.26 · Dissimilarity: 15.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 90.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 33.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.5%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

36/100 Low Pressure Rank 167 of 320
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum2/20
School7/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate60.5%
Avg home ownership65.5%
Avg social rent14.1%
Degree or above33.1%
No qualifications13.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65.5%
Social rent (2021)14.1%
Private rent (2021)17.1%
Ownership (2041)61.4%
Social rent (2041)13.7%
Social rent change-0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 68,328 pupils.

WBI pupils82.8%
Minority pupils17.2%
EAL growth (projected)+7.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)7.3pp

Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.5%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census