Cheltenham

South West · England
-16.5pp WBI 83.3% → 66.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
118,836 Population (2021 Census)
83.3% White British (2021)
73.2% White British (2041 projected)
66.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 83.3%
white other 8.1%
asian 4.1%
black 1.0%
mixed 2.5%
other 1.0%

Projected 2051

white british 66.7%
white other 17.2%
asian 6.5%
black 1.4%
mixed 6.9%
other 1.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-5.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.7pp Structural effect
+2.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.38 · Dissimilarity: 10.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 85.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 14.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 44.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.1%
notEnglishPct 13.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

37/100 Low Pressure Rank 165 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum7/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate59.8%
Avg home ownership60.5%
Avg social rent11.6%
Degree or above40.9%
No qualifications12.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)60.5%
Social rent (2021)11.6%
Private rent (2021)22.8%
Ownership (2041)57.1%
Social rent (2041)11.5%
Social rent change-0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.1%
notEnglishPct 13.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census