Tewkesbury

South West · England
-6.9pp WBI 90.4% → 83.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
94,882 Population (2021 Census)
90.4% White British (2021)
86.4% White British (2041 projected)
83.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.4%
white other 4.7%
asian 2.0%
black 0.6%
mixed 1.8%
other 0.5%

Projected 2051

white british 83.4%
white other 9.6%
asian 1.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 4.0%
other 0.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+3.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.25 · Dissimilarity: 16.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 29.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.6%
notEnglishPct 6.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

16/100 Stable Rank 311 of 320
Ethnic change6/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate60.8%
Avg home ownership70.8%
Avg social rent12.5%
Degree or above34.9%
No qualifications13.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)70.8%
Social rent (2021)12.5%
Private rent (2021)14.2%
Ownership (2041)69.9%
Social rent (2041)12.7%
Social rent change+0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.6%
notEnglishPct 6.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census