Winchester

South East · England
-11.4pp WBI 88.1% → 76.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
127,444 Population (2021 Census)
88.1% White British (2021)
81.2% White British (2041 projected)
76.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.1%
white other 5.5%
asian 3.1%
black 0.6%
mixed 2.0%
other 0.7%

Projected 2051

white british 76.7%
white other 12.3%
asian 5.0%
black 0.6%
mixed 4.8%
other 0.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+3.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.29 · Dissimilarity: 14.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 89.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 11.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 49.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.6%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

32/100 Low Pressure Rank 199 of 320
Ethnic change10/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing19/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.2%
Avg home ownership64.2%
Avg social rent14.8%
Degree or above43.3%
No qualifications10.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.2%
Social rent (2021)14.8%
Private rent (2021)17.3%
Ownership (2041)62.5%
Social rent (2041)14.4%
Social rent change-0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.6%
notEnglishPct 6.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+6.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census