Test Valley

South East · England
-13.1pp WBI 88.0% → 74.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
130,491 Population (2021 Census)
88.0% White British (2021)
80.3% White British (2041 projected)
74.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.0%
white other 5.1%
asian 3.3%
black 1.1%
mixed 1.8%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 74.9%
white other 13.4%
asian 5.3%
black 1.8%
mixed 3.8%
other 0.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+2.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.30 · Dissimilarity: 13.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 88.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 11.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 50.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.8%
notEnglishPct 8.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

31/100 Low Pressure Rank 209 of 320
Ethnic change12/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing19/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate61.1%
Avg home ownership67.5%
Avg social rent13.7%
Degree or above34.2%
No qualifications13.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)67.5%
Social rent (2021)13.7%
Private rent (2021)14.3%
Ownership (2041)65.2%
Social rent (2041)13.4%
Social rent change-0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.8%
notEnglishPct 8.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+7.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census