Portsmouth

South East · England
-32.2pp WBI 77.7% → 45.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
208,001 Population (2021 Census)
77.7% White British (2021)
58.0% White British (2041 projected)
45.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.7%
white other 7.5%
asian 6.9%
black 3.4%
mixed 2.6%
other 1.8%

Projected 2051

white british 45.5%
white other 22.1%
asian 8.9%
black 8.8%
mixed 4.3%
other 10.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.3pp Structural effect
+0.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.48 · Dissimilarity: 4.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 83.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 16.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 48.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.8%
notEnglishPct 18.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

65/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 27 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum17/20
School12/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.4%
Avg home ownership47%
Avg social rent16.1%
Degree or above27%
No qualifications15.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)47%
Social rent (2021)16.1%
Private rent (2021)26.6%
Ownership (2041)40.1%
Social rent (2041)14.9%
Social rent change-1.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 27,459 pupils.

WBI pupils66.1%
Minority pupils33.9%
EAL growth (projected)+11.6pp
WBI gap (school vs population)11.6pp

Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.8%
notEnglishPct 18.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+19.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census