Southampton

South East · England
-39.3pp WBI 68.1% → 28.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
248,920 Population (2021 Census)
68.1% White British (2021)
42.8% White British (2041 projected)
28.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 68.1%
white other 12.6%
asian 10.6%
black 3.0%
mixed 3.3%
other 2.3%

Projected 2051

white british 28.8%
white other 23.5%
asian 12.5%
black 4.9%
mixed 7.8%
other 22.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.2pp Structural effect
-3.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.60 · Dissimilarity: 8.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 75.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 24.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 59.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.6%
notEnglishPct 30.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

59/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 47 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum7/20
School14/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.8%
Avg home ownership41.2%
Avg social rent18.7%
Degree or above27.6%
No qualifications14.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)41.2%
Social rent (2021)18.7%
Private rent (2021)26.5%
Ownership (2041)34.3%
Social rent (2041)16%
Social rent change-2.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 34,094 pupils.

WBI pupils53.8%
Minority pupils46.2%
EAL growth (projected)+14.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)14.3pp

Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.6%
notEnglishPct 30.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+25.3pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census