New Forest

South East · England
-5.5pp WBI 93.2% → 87.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
175,782 Population (2021 Census)
93.2% White British (2021)
90.0% White British (2041 projected)
87.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 93.2%
white other 3.6%
asian 1.2%
black 0.4%
mixed 1.3%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 87.8%
white other 7.5%
asian 1.4%
black 0.6%
mixed 2.4%
other 0.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+5.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.19 · Dissimilarity: 18.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 25.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.0%
notEnglishPct 3.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

14/100 Stable Rank 315 of 320
Ethnic change5/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.1%
Avg home ownership73.4%
Avg social rent10.6%
Degree or above30.7%
No qualifications15.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)73.4%
Social rent (2021)10.6%
Private rent (2021)14.3%
Ownership (2041)72.6%
Social rent (2041)10.6%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.0%
notEnglishPct 3.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+3.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census