Mole Valley

South East · England
-10.9pp WBI 85.8% → 74.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
87,387 Population (2021 Census)
85.8% White British (2021)
79.2% White British (2041 projected)
74.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 85.8%
white other 7.0%
asian 3.0%
black 0.8%
mixed 2.5%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 74.9%
white other 14.2%
asian 3.1%
black 0.9%
mixed 6.0%
other 0.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.8pp Structural effect
+2.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.33 · Dissimilarity: 12.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 53.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.3%
notEnglishPct 7.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

30/100 Low Pressure Rank 215 of 320
Ethnic change10/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.6%
Avg home ownership71.2%
Avg social rent11.2%
Degree or above41.5%
No qualifications11.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)71.2%
Social rent (2021)11.2%
Private rent (2021)13.8%
Ownership (2041)70.1%
Social rent (2041)11%
Social rent change-0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.3%
notEnglishPct 7.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+6.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census