Guildford

South East · England
-21.7pp WBI 77.3% → 55.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
143,647 Population (2021 Census)
77.3% White British (2021)
63.8% White British (2041 projected)
55.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.3%
white other 9.5%
asian 6.7%
black 1.5%
mixed 3.0%
other 1.9%

Projected 2051

white british 55.6%
white other 16.3%
asian 12.0%
black 1.6%
mixed 9.0%
other 5.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.3pp Structural effect
+0.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.47 · Dissimilarity: 6.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 80.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 19.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 65.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.9%
notEnglishPct 16.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

40/100 Low Pressure Rank 153 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.5%
Avg home ownership61.5%
Avg social rent11.6%
Degree or above40.5%
No qualifications10.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)61.5%
Social rent (2021)11.6%
Private rent (2021)18.7%
Ownership (2041)56.8%
Social rent (2041)10.8%
Social rent change-0.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.9%
notEnglishPct 16.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+13.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census