Elmbridge

South East · England
-15.2pp WBI 74.1% → 59.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
138,755 Population (2021 Census)
74.1% White British (2021)
65.0% White British (2041 projected)
59.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 74.1%
white other 12.0%
asian 6.5%
black 1.2%
mixed 4.1%
other 2.0%

Projected 2051

white british 59.0%
white other 12.1%
asian 8.7%
black 1.8%
mixed 13.7%
other 4.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-5.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
0.0pp Structural effect
+0.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.51 · Dissimilarity: 7.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 78.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 21.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 55.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.1%
notEnglishPct 13.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

32/100 Low Pressure Rank 201 of 320
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate59.5%
Avg home ownership66.3%
Avg social rent9.2%
Degree or above48.1%
No qualifications9.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.3%
Social rent (2021)9.2%
Private rent (2021)16.6%
Ownership (2041)63.9%
Social rent (2041)8.9%
Social rent change-0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.1%
notEnglishPct 13.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census