Hillingdon

London · England
-30.6pp WBI 37.1% → 6.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
305,907 Population (2021 Census)
37.1% White British (2021)
13.5% White British (2041 projected)
6.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 37.1%
white other 11.1%
asian 33.3%
black 7.8%
mixed 4.4%
other 6.3%

Projected 2051

white british 6.5%
white other 11.8%
asian 34.0%
black 5.7%
mixed 3.6%
other 38.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-15.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.2pp Structural effect
-11.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.83 · Dissimilarity: 37.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 27.2% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 61.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 38.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 74.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 77.9%
notEnglishPct 44.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

73/100 High Pressure Rank 9 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School15/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate38.1%
Avg home ownership32.2%
Avg social rent9.2%
Degree or above22.3%
No qualifications10.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)32.2%
Social rent (2021)9.2%
Private rent (2021)17.4%
Ownership (2041)26.3%
Social rent (2041)7.7%
Social rent change-1.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 51,811 pupils.

WBI pupils22.5%
Minority pupils77.5%
EAL growth (projected)+14.6pp
WBI gap (school vs population)14.6pp

Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 77.9%
notEnglishPct 44.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+23.6pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census