Spelthorne

South East · England
-37.8pp WBI 69.2% → 31.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
102,960 Population (2021 Census)
69.2% White British (2021)
44.3% White British (2041 projected)
31.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 69.2%
white other 9.4%
asian 12.8%
black 2.5%
mixed 3.7%
other 2.4%

Projected 2051

white british 31.4%
white other 23.3%
asian 31.5%
black 4.0%
mixed 6.8%
other 3.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-11.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.1pp Structural effect
-5.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.58 · Dissimilarity: 8.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 20.1% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 79.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 20.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 55.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.9%
notEnglishPct 20.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

41/100 Low Pressure Rank 142 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum4/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.8%
Avg home ownership58%
Avg social rent10.7%
Degree or above28.8%
No qualifications14.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)58%
Social rent (2021)10.7%
Private rent (2021)16.1%
Ownership (2041)46.1%
Social rent (2041)8.5%
Social rent change-2.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.9%
notEnglishPct 20.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+25pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census