33.9% of England + Wales births in 2024 were to non-UK-born mothers
A third of England and Wales births in 2024 were to non-UK-born mothers. Birmingham and the London boroughs are running well ahead.
ONS Births Table 1, 2024 release. 594,677 live births in England and Wales last year. 201,593 of those, 33.9%, to mothers born outside the UK.
The trajectory:
| Year | Total births | Non-UK-born mother % |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 708,711 | 24.1% |
| 2012 | 729,674 | 25.9% |
| 2016 | 696,271 | 28.2% |
| 2020 | 613,936 | 29.3% |
| 2024 | 594,677 | 33.9% |
Total births fell 16% over the period. Births to UK-born mothers fell from 537,914 to 393,084 (down 27%). Births to non-UK-born mothers rose from 170,797 to 201,593 (up 18%).
The composition change is driven by two forces moving in the same direction: UK-born fertility falling and the share of women of childbearing age born outside the UK rising. Neither is mean-reverting on current trajectory.
Where the share is already past 70%
ONS Table 6a, 2024 (per-LA). The top 10:
| Local authority | Births 2024 | Non-UK-born mother % |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | 4,445 | 77.1% |
| Harrow | 3,249 | 77.1% |
| City of London | 45 | 75.6% |
| Newham | 5,518 | 75.3% |
| Ealing | 4,639 | 73.8% |
| Hounslow | 4,059 | 73.1% |
| Westminster | 1,890 | 71.9% |
| Tower Hamlets | 4,830 | 70.5% |
| Slough | 2,498 | 67.9% |
| Redbridge | 4,422 | 67.4% |
Where the share is rising fastest off a low base
Burnley is the case study. Resident non-UK-born share at Census 2021: 12.7%. Birth share in 2024: 32.1% (352 of 1,096 live births). The birth cohort is 2.5 times more non-UK-born than the resident base.
The mother-region split for Burnley’s 352 non-UK-born-mother births in 2024:
- Middle East and Asia: 231
- EU pre-2004: 68
- EU post-2004: 51
- Africa: 41
- Rest of world: 12
The Middle East and Asia category accounts for 65.6% of Burnley’s non-UK-born-mother births and 21.1% of all Burnley births.
What it means
When you read the ethnic-projection numbers on a place page, the engine driving the change is mostly already here. The 2024 birth cohort is the composition of the under-5 age band in 2029. That, in turn, is the composition of the 5 to 9 band in 2034, and so on. Projection is not speculation about migration policy; it is the demographic momentum of cohorts that have already arrived and already given birth.
Sources. ONS Births by parents’ country of birth, England and Wales 2024 release. National time series 2008 to 2024 from Table 1; per-LA 2024 from Table 6a. Resident non-UK-born share from Census 2021 (TS012 country of birth, NOMIS NM_2032_1). See /national/ for the rolling chart and any place page for the local birth-region split.
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