Harrow

London · England
-18.3pp WBI 20.5% → 2.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
261,205 Population (2021 Census)
20.5% White British (2021)
5.9% White British (2041 projected)
2.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 20.5%
white other 15.9%
asian 45.2%
black 7.3%
mixed 3.8%
other 7.2%

Projected 2051

white british 2.2%
white other 18.6%
asian 17.3%
black 2.5%
mixed 1.5%
other 57.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-10.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+3.9pp Structural effect
-7.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.83 · Dissimilarity: 54.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 30.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 48.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 51.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 82.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 69.3%
notEnglishPct 61.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

56/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 65 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum7/20
School13/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate31.2%
Avg home ownership24.1%
Avg social rent4.7%
Degree or above20%
No qualifications9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)24.1%
Social rent (2021)4.7%
Private rent (2021)18.5%
Ownership (2041)27.3%
Social rent (2041)6.3%
Social rent change+1.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 38,277 pupils.

WBI pupils7.3%
Minority pupils92.7%
EAL growth (projected)+13.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)13.2pp

Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 69.3%
notEnglishPct 61.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+14.7pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census