Arab population projected to triple in 63 councils by 2051. a group no model has tracked before

Correction, 7 September 2026. Six of the eight 2051 bullets below were pre-recalibration output and are re-derived from the projection data: Ealing now reads 11.2%, Manchester 6.2%, Harrow 5.9%, Liverpool 4.8%, Birmingham 4.8% and Kingston upon Thames 4.2%. Brent at 12.9% and Westminster at 9.2% are unchanged.

The national count published here since April matched neither Census 2021 nor this site’s own data. It is replaced by the Census figure at the primary source: 320,203 people in England, 0.57% of the population (ONS Census 2021 TS021, NOMIS NM_2041_1). The projected 2051 national share is 1.4%, computed on the basis the homepage and national page use, and the headline count of councils where the Arab share at least triples is 63.

No demographic model has ever projected the Arab population of England separately. Until now.

Census 2021 introduced a standalone “Arab” ethnic category. Previous projections, including NEWETHPOP and our own earlier model, lumped Arab with “Other ethnic group”, making it invisible in demographic analysis. Our v8.0 model, built on the ONS Census 2021 custom dataset with 20 ethnic groups, projects Arab population dynamics for the first time at local authority level. The figures here were revised down on 13 August 2026 when the model was recalibrated against an out-of-sample test, and the six that the recalibration missed were brought into line on 7 September 2026.

There are 320,203 people who identified as Arab in England at Census 2021. 0.57% of the population. Across England and Wales the count is 331,844. Both come from table TS021, the Census ethnic group table, read from NOMIS. By 2051 the projection takes the Arab share from 0.6% to 1.4%, population-weighted across the 263 areas the current model run produces, with far higher concentrations in specific areas.

Arab share of population, 2021 and 2051:

• Brent: 5.3% to 12.9%
• Ealing: 4.4% to 11.2%
• Westminster: 7.6% to 9.2%
• Manchester: 2.7% to 6.2%
• Harrow: 2.4% to 5.9%
• Liverpool: 1.7% to 4.8%
• Birmingham: 1.7% to 4.8%
• Kingston upon Thames: 2.1% to 4.2%

The share at least triples in 63 of those 263 areas, most of them off a base under half a percent: Halton runs 0.19% to 1.19%, Darlington 0.30% to 1.49%.

The asylum link: The nationality-to-ethnicity mapping shows that asylum seekers from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya (all with 80%+ grant rates) will primarily identify as Arab in Census terms. Arab population growth is therefore partly driven by successful asylum claims and subsequent family reunion. This is the first model to make that link quantifiable.

Methodology: Hamilton-Perry v8.0 with 20 ethnic groups. Census 2021 direct observations (no IPF). Arab group separated from “Other” for the first time. CWR-implied TFR for Arab population: approximately 2.02 (above White British 1.71 on the same CWR scaling). SNPP 2022-based envelope constraint. National counts are ONS Census 2021 TS021 via NOMIS NM_2041_1; the 20-group detail in the projection file covers 269 of the 318 areas this site holds and 263 of them carry a current-model 2051, so it cannot produce a national total of its own. These are demographic projections assuming 2011-2021 patterns persist, not forecasts.