Barnet

London · England
-25.4pp WBI 36.2% → 10.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
389,344 Population (2021 Census)
36.2% White British (2021)
18.4% White British (2041 projected)
10.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 36.2%
white other 21.6%
asian 19.3%
black 7.9%
mixed 5.4%
other 9.8%

Projected 2051

white british 10.7%
white other 17.3%
asian 11.0%
black 4.6%
mixed 4.7%
other 51.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.8pp Structural effect
-5.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.89 · Dissimilarity: 38.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 19.1% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 56.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 43.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 77.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 77.1%
notEnglishPct 45.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

65/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 26 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum17/20
School10/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate47.7%
Avg home ownership37.2%
Avg social rent9.5%
Degree or above35.7%
No qualifications11.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)37.2%
Social rent (2021)9.5%
Private rent (2021)26.2%
Ownership (2041)36.7%
Social rent (2041)10%
Social rent change+0.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 60,157 pupils.

WBI pupils26.2%
Minority pupils73.8%
EAL growth (projected)+10.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)10.0pp

Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 77.1%
notEnglishPct 45.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+17.8pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census