Westminster

London · England
-15.6pp WBI 28.0% → 12.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
204,236 Population (2021 Census)
28.0% White British (2021)
16.4% White British (2041 projected)
12.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 28.0%
white other 27.2%
asian 16.8%
black 8.1%
mixed 6.5%
other 13.4%

Projected 2051

white british 12.4%
white other 21.8%
asian 21.0%
black 8.9%
mixed 13.1%
other 22.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+3.6pp Structural effect
-4.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.93 · Dissimilarity: 46.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 23.7% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 44.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 55.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 85.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 73.6%
notEnglishPct 52.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

50/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 90 of 320
Ethnic change17/20
Asylum1/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate46.9%
Avg home ownership19.3%
Avg social rent20.9%
Degree or above43.6%
No qualifications9.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)19.3%
Social rent (2021)20.9%
Private rent (2021)34.9%
Ownership (2041)16.5%
Social rent (2041)20.9%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 20,433 pupils.

WBI pupils11.4%
Minority pupils88.6%
EAL growth (projected)+16.6pp
WBI gap (school vs population)16.6pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 73.6%
notEnglishPct 52.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+11.6pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census