Kensington and Chelsea

London · England
-17.1pp WBI 32.7% → 15.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
143,373 Population (2021 Census)
32.7% White British (2021)
20.6% White British (2041 projected)
15.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 32.7%
white other 31.1%
asian 11.9%
black 7.9%
mixed 6.6%
other 9.9%

Projected 2051

white british 15.6%
white other 24.8%
asian 14.6%
black 10.6%
mixed 9.7%
other 24.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+3.2pp Structural effect
-3.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.89 · Dissimilarity: 41.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 18.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 46.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 53.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 84.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 76.4%
notEnglishPct 47.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

56/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 66 of 320
Ethnic change18/20
Asylum9/20
School14/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate49.4%
Avg home ownership25%
Avg social rent21.6%
Degree or above48.3%
No qualifications8.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)25%
Social rent (2021)21.6%
Private rent (2021)33.7%
Ownership (2041)21.8%
Social rent (2041)21.8%
Social rent change+0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 12,477 pupils.

WBI pupils19.0%
Minority pupils81.0%
EAL growth (projected)+13.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)13.7pp

Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 76.4%
notEnglishPct 47.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+12.1pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census