City of London

London · England
-22.6pp WBI 42.5% → 19.9% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
8,584 Population (2021 Census)
42.5% White British (2021)
25.3% White British (2041 projected)
19.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 42.5%
white other 26.9%
asian 16.8%
black 3.9%
mixed 4.3%
other 5.6%

Projected 2051

white british 19.9%
white other 32.3%
asian 24.5%
black 5.3%
mixed 7.7%
other 10.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-15.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.8pp Structural effect
-10.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.80 · Dissimilarity: 33.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 50.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 49.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 88.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 78.4%
notEnglishPct 43.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

60/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 45 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School20/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.9%
Avg home ownership27.5%
Avg social rent11.5%
Degree or above59.1%
No qualifications5.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)27.5%
Social rent (2021)11.5%
Private rent (2021)40.4%
Ownership (2041)22.4%
Social rent (2041)10.4%
Social rent change-1.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 249 pupils.

WBI pupils17.3%
Minority pupils82.7%
EAL growth (projected)+25.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)25.2pp

Schools are 25pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 78.4%
notEnglishPct 43.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+17.2pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census