Roma and Gypsy/Traveller populations now separately tracked. concentrated in specific boroughs

Correction, 7 September 2026. The two national counts published here since April could not be derived from this site’s projection data, because 49 of the 318 areas it holds carry no 20-group detail. They are replaced by the figures at the primary source: Roma 100,981 (0.17%) and Gypsy or Irish Traveller 67,768 (0.11%) for England and Wales, ONS Census 2021 table TS021 via NOMIS NM_2041_1, giving a combined 168,749 in place of the lower total the badge and body previously carried.

Three entries in the Gypsy or Irish Traveller list were wrong and are replaced. Swale (0.61%) was missing and leads the list. Central Bedfordshire was published at 0.42% and is 0.15%, Basildon at 0.39% and is 0.13%, Mid Devon at 0.35% and is 0.17%; all three are checked against TS021 at local authority level and none of them belongs in a list of the most concentrated areas. Ashford (0.52%) and Wychavon (0.47%) take their places.

Two populations that have never been separately projected: Roma and Gypsy/Irish Traveller.

Census 2021 distinguishes White: Roma (100,981 people, 0.17%) from White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller (67,768 people, 0.11%). 168,749 people between them across England and Wales. Previous demographic models, including NEWETHPOP and our own earlier versions, merged both into White Other, making them invisible.

Roma are concentrated in urban London boroughs:

• Hammersmith and Fulham: 0.81%
• Haringey: 0.76%
• Westminster: 0.74%
• Kensington and Chelsea: 0.74%
• Brent: 0.74%
• Tower Hamlets: 0.72%
• Newham: 0.67%

Gypsy/Irish Travellers are concentrated in rural and semi-rural areas:

• Swale: 0.61%
• Maidstone: 0.58%
• Fenland: 0.57%
• Ashford: 0.52%
• Wychavon: 0.47%

The policy gap. Local authorities have legal obligations to assess accommodation needs for Gypsy and Traveller communities (under the Housing Act 2004 and Planning Policy for Traveller Sites). Until now, no demographic projection has been available to inform these assessments. Our model provides the first projected trajectories for these groups.

CWR-implied fertility: Gypsy/Traveller has the highest CWR-implied TFR of any group at approximately 2.56, well above the national average. Roma CWR-implied TFR: approximately 1.33. These rates drive different population growth trajectories despite both groups being small.

Methodology: Hamilton-Perry v8.0 with 20 ethnic groups. Census 2021 direct observations. Roma separated from White Other (previously merged). Gypsy/Irish Traveller separated from White Other. The national counts are ONS Census 2021 TS021 for England and Wales, read from NOMIS NM_2041_1; the per-area shares are this site’s Census 2021 custom dataset, which covers 269 of the 318 areas at 20-group detail and so produces no national total of its own. Small population sizes mean wider simulation intervals than for larger groups.