Gloucester

South West · England
-23.3pp WBI 78.0% → 54.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
132,414 Population (2021 Census)
78.0% White British (2021)
63.5% White British (2041 projected)
54.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 78.0%
white other 6.9%
asian 6.5%
black 3.6%
mixed 3.8%
other 1.2%

Projected 2051

white british 54.7%
white other 17.4%
asian 11.0%
black 8.1%
mixed 7.4%
other 1.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
+0.2pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.48 · Dissimilarity: 5.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 85.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 14.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 43.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.0%
notEnglishPct 16.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

49/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 92 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum14/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.2%
Avg home ownership57.5%
Avg social rent12.5%
Degree or above24.7%
No qualifications16.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)57.5%
Social rent (2021)12.5%
Private rent (2021)19.8%
Ownership (2041)51.2%
Social rent (2041)11.9%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.0%
notEnglishPct 16.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+14.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census