Gloucester
South West · England · E07000081132,414 people at the 2021 Census. The White British majority here is projected to end around 2057. Twenty three datasets for this area, every figure sourced.
Projected Falls below half around 2057
103,317 of Gloucester’s 132,414 residents identified as White British at the 2021 Census. The projection takes that share from 78.0% to 55.4% by 2051. Interpolated between projection decades, so the year is approximate.
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points per decade and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased. The shaded band is the 80% interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Gloucester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% interval
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian | Black | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 84.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 2021 | 78.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| 2031 modelled | 71.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| 2041 modelled | 64.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% |
| 2051 modelled | 55.4% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| 2061 modelled | 46.0% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 7.5% |
Ethnic composition: Gloucester
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±1.6pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 55.4% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 57.0% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 1.6pp on White British share in Gloucester by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Gloucester ranges from 47.1% to 62.3% by 2051: a 15.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.8% by 2051
Diversity index
moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.48 · Dissimilarity: 5.7
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion | Muslim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 50.7% | 42.2% | 5.0% |
| 2031 modelled | 34.3% | 56.5% | 6.5% |
| 2041 modelled | 21.0% | 68.4% | 7.5% |
| 2051 modelled | 11.8% | 76.6% | 8.2% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 2031 modelled | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 2041 modelled | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 2051 modelled | 56.2% | 43.8% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English92.0%
Main language not English8.0%
Cannot speak English well1.3%
Cannot speak English at all0.2%
Total population 3+128,075
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +14.5pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum14/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Gloucester ranks at the 70th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)1,296
Year-on-year +40.9%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
Nigeria 355 27.4%
Pakistan 179 13.8%
India 163 12.6%
Kenya 117 9.0%
Nepal 54 4.2%
Bangladesh 51 3.9%
Sudan 39 3.0%
Sri Lanka 39 3.0%
Eritrea 36 2.8%
Ghana 30 2.3%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Gloucester from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2023 (1,966 registrations). Total over the full period: 20,572 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 1,394 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Gloucester in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Gloucester UK marker
Sex
Male share is 0.7pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Gloucester, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
Nigeria 355 in Gloucester (27.4%)
Pakistan 179 in Gloucester (13.8%)
India 163 in Gloucester (12.6%)
Kenya 117 in Gloucester (9.0%)
Nepal 54 in Gloucester (4.2%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026; Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Gloucester changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 121,688 in 2011 to 132,422 in 2021 (+8.8%). Non-UK-born residents went from 12,745 (10.5% of population) to 19,079 (14.4%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 108,943 89.5% 113,343 85.6% +4,400
Ireland-born 764 0.6% 570 0.4% -194
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 1,497 1.2% 1,960 1.5% +463
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 3,118 2.6% 6,374 4.8% +3,256
Rest of World 7,366 6.1% 10,175 7.7% +2,809
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 51 state-funded schools in Gloucester (23,369 pupils, 2024/25), 19.4% have a first language other than English. The published Gloucestershire-wide upper-tier figure is much lower because it averages every district in the county; this is the genuine Gloucester number.
Pupils with first language other than English4,319 (19.4%)
Pupils with first language English17,887 (80.2%)
Free school meals23.0%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
South West labour market
Payrolled employments in the South West region (December 2024). Provides Gloucester with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments2,671,500
Non-UK share13.2%
5-year change · Non-EU +113,100
5-year change · EU -22,200
Top industries by non-UK share (South West)
Administrative and support services 23.1%
Health and social work 20.9%
Accommodation and food service activities 18.5%
Transportation and storage 17.6%
Manufacturing 15.7%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Gloucester ranks at the 92th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k121.0
Violent crime / 1k52.5
Theft / 1k33.4
ASB / 1k21.8
Drug offences / 1k3.3
Year-on-year -9.5%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Adult social care for Gloucester residents is delivered by Gloucestershire County Council. Figures below are the county-wide ASC profile.
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 0th percentile nationally.
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Gloucester's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 18.9%
White: English 19.4%
Asian 12.4%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Gloucester pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate58.2%
Avg home ownership57.5%
Avg social rent12.5%
Degree or above24.7%
No qualifications16.4%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Gloucester are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up36.6%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount21,322
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)416
HMOs per 1,000 population3.14
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Gloucester's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 66.8%
White: English: owned 69.1%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 35.1%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)57.5%
Social rent (2021)12.5%
Private rent (2021)19.8%
Ownership (2041)51.2%
Social rent (2041)11.9%
Social rent change-0.7pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Gloucester, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Gloucester on Asylum Stats →