Surrey Heath

South East · England
-23.1pp WBI 77.9% → 54.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
90,456 Population (2021 Census)
77.9% White British (2021)
63.9% White British (2041 projected)
54.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.9%
white other 7.1%
asian 8.9%
black 1.6%
mixed 2.7%
other 1.8%

Projected 2051

white british 54.8%
white other 15.0%
asian 19.7%
black 2.4%
mixed 6.1%
other 2.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-0.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.47 · Dissimilarity: 4.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 82.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 17.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 62.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

45/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 116 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum5/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate57.7%
Avg home ownership66.7%
Avg social rent8.5%
Degree or above35.3%
No qualifications11.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.7%
Social rent (2021)8.5%
Private rent (2021)14.2%
Ownership (2041)60%
Social rent (2041)7.8%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+14pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census