St Albans

East of England · England
-22.4pp WBI 73.5% → 51.1% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
148,169 Population (2021 Census)
73.5% White British (2021)
58.0% White British (2041 projected)
51.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 73.5%
white other 10.1%
asian 8.2%
black 3.5%
mixed 3.0%
other 1.8%

Projected 2051

white british 51.1%
white other 14.6%
asian 16.2%
black 5.7%
mixed 7.3%
other 5.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.1pp Structural effect
-1.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.53 · Dissimilarity: 4.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 83.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 17.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 62.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.7%
notEnglishPct 12.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

42/100 Low Pressure Rank 134 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate57.8%
Avg home ownership62.7%
Avg social rent10.8%
Degree or above46.9%
No qualifications8.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)62.7%
Social rent (2021)10.8%
Private rent (2021)14.8%
Ownership (2041)56.1%
Social rent (2041)10.2%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.7%
notEnglishPct 12.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+15.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census