County Durham

North East · England
-6.1pp WBI 94.7% → 88.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
522,067 Population (2021 Census)
94.7% White British (2021)
91.3% White British (2041 projected)
88.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.7%
white other 2.1%
asian 1.5%
black 0.3%
mixed 0.9%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 88.7%
white other 4.2%
asian 2.6%
black 0.6%
mixed 3.3%
other 0.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+5.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.16 · Dissimilarity: 20.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 95.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 4.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 17.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

21/100 Stable Rank 270 of 320
Ethnic change5/20
Asylum5/20
School4/20
Language0/20
Housing7/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.3%
Avg home ownership61.5%
Avg social rent19.5%
Degree or above26.3%
No qualifications20.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)61.5%
Social rent (2021)19.5%
Private rent (2021)17%
Ownership (2041)60.5%
Social rent (2041)19.3%
Social rent change-0.2pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 72,696 pupils.

WBI pupils90.9%
Minority pupils9.1%
EAL growth (projected)+3.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)3.8pp

School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+3.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census