Northumberland

North East · England
-25.2pp WBI 96.1% → 70.9% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
320,566 Population (2021 Census)
96.1% White British (2021)
80.3% White British (2041 projected)
70.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 96.1%
white other 1.6%
asian 1.1%
black 0.5%
mixed 0.5%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 70.9%
white other 7.7%
asian 10.3%
black 4.7%
mixed 2.9%
other 3.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.4pp Structural effect
+6.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.12 · Dissimilarity: 21.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 14.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.9%
notEnglishPct 2.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

40/100 Low Pressure Rank 145 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum10/20
School4/20
Language0/20
Housing5/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.4%
Avg home ownership64.7%
Avg social rent17.5%
Degree or above30.2%
No qualifications17.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.7%
Social rent (2021)17.5%
Private rent (2021)16.3%
Ownership (2041)58.2%
Social rent (2041)16.1%
Social rent change-1.4pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 44,372 pupils.

WBI pupils92.3%
Minority pupils7.7%
EAL growth (projected)+3.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)3.8pp

School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.9%
notEnglishPct 2.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+15.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census