Darlington

North East · England
-14.2pp WBI 90.3% → 76.1% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
107,796 Population (2021 Census)
90.3% White British (2021)
82.4% White British (2041 projected)
76.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.3%
white other 4.1%
asian 2.8%
black 0.6%
mixed 1.4%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 76.1%
white other 14.7%
asian 3.8%
black 1.3%
mixed 2.9%
other 1.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.4pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.25 · Dissimilarity: 15.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 92.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 7.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 40.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.8%
notEnglishPct 8.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

48/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 98 of 320
Ethnic change12/20
Asylum10/20
School10/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate57.4%
Avg home ownership60.8%
Avg social rent15.7%
Degree or above28%
No qualifications18.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)60.8%
Social rent (2021)15.7%
Private rent (2021)20.1%
Ownership (2041)58.4%
Social rent (2041)15.9%
Social rent change+0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 16,038 pupils.

WBI pupils80.5%
Minority pupils19.5%
EAL growth (projected)+9.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)9.8pp

Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.8%
notEnglishPct 8.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+7.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census