Stockton-on-Tees

North East · England
-13.4pp WBI 90.3% → 76.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
196,593 Population (2021 Census)
90.3% White British (2021)
82.8% White British (2041 projected)
76.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.3%
white other 1.7%
asian 4.6%
black 1.1%
mixed 1.4%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 76.9%
white other 3.5%
asian 11.0%
black 4.4%
mixed 3.0%
other 1.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.25 · Dissimilarity: 15.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 34.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.0%
notEnglishPct 6.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

54/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 70 of 320
Ethnic change11/20
Asylum20/20
School8/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.1%
Avg home ownership62.7%
Avg social rent15.4%
Degree or above27.9%
No qualifications17.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)62.7%
Social rent (2021)15.4%
Private rent (2021)16.2%
Ownership (2041)58.6%
Social rent (2041)14.5%
Social rent change-0.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 31,503 pupils.

WBI pupils82.1%
Minority pupils17.9%
EAL growth (projected)+8.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)8.2pp

Schools are 8pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.0%
notEnglishPct 6.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+7.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census