South Oxfordshire

South East · England
-13.0pp WBI 85.8% → 72.8% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
149,088 Population (2021 Census)
85.8% White British (2021)
77.9% White British (2041 projected)
72.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 85.8%
white other 7.3%
asian 2.9%
black 1.0%
mixed 2.3%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 72.8%
white other 15.4%
asian 4.2%
black 1.1%
mixed 5.8%
other 0.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-5.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+2.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.33 · Dissimilarity: 12.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 40.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

26/100 Low Pressure Rank 243 of 320
Ethnic change12/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate62.7%
Avg home ownership68.9%
Avg social rent11.5%
Degree or above41.9%
No qualifications12%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)68.9%
Social rent (2021)11.5%
Private rent (2021)15.7%
Ownership (2041)66.9%
Social rent (2041)11.2%
Social rent change-0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+7.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census