Oxford

South East · England
-34.0pp WBI 53.5% → 19.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
162,040 Population (2021 Census)
53.5% White British (2021)
30.2% White British (2041 projected)
19.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 53.5%
white other 17.2%
asian 15.4%
black 4.6%
mixed 5.5%
other 3.7%

Projected 2051

white british 19.5%
white other 17.3%
asian 18.1%
black 3.3%
mixed 10.6%
other 31.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-10.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.3pp Structural effect
-5.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.75 · Dissimilarity: 21.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 16.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 65.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 35.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 71.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 81.9%
notEnglishPct 36.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

46/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 108 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum8/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate45.9%
Avg home ownership35.9%
Avg social rent16.3%
Degree or above38.8%
No qualifications9.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)35.9%
Social rent (2021)16.3%
Private rent (2021)27.7%
Ownership (2041)29.8%
Social rent (2041)14.6%
Social rent change-1.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 81.9%
notEnglishPct 36.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+23.3pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census