Cherwell

South East · England
-31.7pp WBI 77.9% → 46.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
161,015 Population (2021 Census)
77.9% White British (2021)
58.0% White British (2041 projected)
46.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.9%
white other 10.2%
asian 6.0%
black 1.8%
mixed 2.9%
other 1.3%

Projected 2051

white british 46.2%
white other 31.7%
asian 11.6%
black 2.1%
mixed 6.8%
other 1.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-8.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.5pp Structural effect
-1.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.46 · Dissimilarity: 7.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 82.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 17.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 63.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.7%
notEnglishPct 18.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

44/100 Low Pressure Rank 119 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum4/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate62.5%
Avg home ownership61.1%
Avg social rent12.2%
Degree or above32.4%
No qualifications14.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)61.1%
Social rent (2021)12.2%
Private rent (2021)18.9%
Ownership (2041)53.8%
Social rent (2041)10.9%
Social rent change-1.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.7%
notEnglishPct 18.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+19.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census