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South East · England
-34.5pp WBI 53.5% → 19.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
174,223 Population (2021 Census)
53.5% White British (2021)
28.8% White British (2041 projected)
19.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 53.5%
white other 13.6%
asian 17.7%
black 7.2%
mixed 5.2%
other 2.9%

Projected 2051

white british 19.0%
white other 22.4%
asian 29.8%
black 6.3%
mixed 7.8%
other 14.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-11.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.2pp Structural effect
-6.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.76 · Dissimilarity: 21.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 14.0% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 66.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 33.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 70.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 81.1%
notEnglishPct 37.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

78/100 High Pressure Rank 2 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School20/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate50.9%
Avg home ownership37.1%
Avg social rent12.1%
Degree or above30.6%
No qualifications11.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)37.1%
Social rent (2021)12.1%
Private rent (2021)25.9%
Ownership (2041)28.4%
Social rent (2041)9.6%
Social rent change-2.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 23,990 pupils.

WBI pupils31.4%
Minority pupils68.6%
EAL growth (projected)+22.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)22.1pp

Schools are 22pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 81.1%
notEnglishPct 37.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+24.6pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census